Drivers of the Future

Demographic Change

the size of the population will continue to grow
the population will continue to get older
single person households will be 40% of the total by 2010
over 4m new dwellings may be needed by 2020
changing demographics may mean demand for different styles and locations of housing
changing demographics will produce different consumption patterns

changes in global economic activity continue and the world continues to 'shrink'
an increasingly competitive world: divided between economic 'winners' and 'losers'
national and local governments forced to rethink roles in economic governance
can towns 'hold down' global pressures and attract inward investment?

are our local industries and companies likely to grow or decline?
have we got potential 'Rover cars' situations in our locality?
what effects might closures have?
what can we, and/or others, do to try and prevent adverse effects of globalisation?
can local authorities affect global players?
what should the priorities for local economic development in an era of globalisation?

inequalities in other countries may encourage migration to the UK
widening disparities in distribution of income and wealth
social inequities, within and between regions, will continue for the foreseeable future and will continue to encourage migration
social inequality is likely to engender wider problems such as environmental degradation
there may be a growing emphasis on sustainable development and co-ordinated policy responses

can we foresee potential inequalities of tomorrow?
and what can we do to pre-empt and prevent them?
can we make policy development more holistic and sustainable?
how can we increase the capacity of excluded communities to help themselves?
what effects might regional inequalities and migration between regions have on our area?

75% of homes will have digital TV with internal access by 2008
voice control will reduce dependence on keyboard skills
high quality sound and video will be available to households via the net
mapping of human DNA will be complete within 2-4 years
molecular engineering has widespread implications for individuals, industry, social and economic structures

will we have to 'go to the office' to work?
how much shopping will be done 'virtually' from home?
will children need to attend school?
what will the impacts be on where we live?
- on the retail trade?
- on travel patterns?
- on villages, towns and cities as we know them?
implications of longevity and immortality?

the earth is warming more than we appreciate
by 2050, the South of England may have a climate similar to Southern France today
other areas will have more floods, gales or be lost to the sea
more concentrated location of fossil fuels
UK to be a net importer of gas by 2009
traffic (vehicle kms) could double by 2025
pressures upon ecosystems and biodiversity
developing countries still lack the capacity to deal with environmental problems

Ageing and deteriorating housing stock
4 million new homes over the next 20 years
IT may change traditional patterns of living and employment locations - individuals and businesses will both be more footloose
some areas will 'win', others will 'lose'
good networks and good governance are likely to be important

major changes already in employment patterns: influenced by globalisation and information technology
skills shortages in information and communications technology are already a concern in some place
some countries (with ageing populations) may need to encourage immigration
long term careers are likely to decline, employees will have to be more adaptive
self-employment, part-time employment and home-based work will increase
other big changes for organisations and individuals

what effects might we experience from continuing shifts from manufacturing to services?
what effects might continuing regional shifts in employment locations have?
what impacts might ICT have on employment?
what skills shortages might our area suffer from?
how might paid employment be distributed between men and women; and the skilled and unskilled?

as EU influence expands - will more or less local level activity be required?
what effects from more regional responsibilities?
are there any limits for contracting out of services?
what services could be delivered electronically?
how might this affect local provision and local government?
what effect might direct polling on local issues have on the roles of Councillors?
how can accountability be built into new local governance structures?